Google DeepMind's WeatherNext AI model predicted Hurricane Melissa would hit Jamaica as a Category 5 with 80 percent confidence five days before landfall. Published in Nature, the model gives forecasters an additional day of lead time compared to existing models, meaning its three-day predictions are as accurate as previous models' two-day predictions.
The extra time is valuable for organizing evacuations, staging supplies, and moving resources. Mike Brennan, director of the US National Hurricane Center, noted that historically, bringing forecasts forward by a day would take a decade of work.
Earlier AI models excelled at predicting storm tracks but struggled with intensity predictions. Ferran Alet, a research scientist at Google DeepMind, explained that while cyclone data is limited, the team leveraged extensive general weather data to train the model on both general weather patterns and cyclone-specific behaviors.